Pirin Razlog 2–5 Oborishte: Result & Stats

Pirin Razlog

FT

2 – 5

Oborishte

5/24/2025

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 36Stadion Godlevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Pirin Razlog42%

×Draw26%

Oborishte32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pirin RazlogExpected goals in this matchOborishte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.25

Pirin Razlog

1.46

Oborishte

1.25

Pirin Razlog creates 17% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 132 away

1.35

creates per match

1.39

1.11

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Pirin Razlog

1.35

Oborishte

1.39

allows per match

Pirin Razlog

1.11

Oborishte

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pirin Razlog+0.00on par

Oborishte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Razlog ↓

Oborishte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Pirin Razlog or draw

68%

Pirin Razlog or Oborishte

74%

Draw or Oborishte

58%

Winning margin

Pirin Razlog wins by 2+

20%

Oborishte wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Pirin Razlog 1+ goals

77%

Pirin Razlog 2+ goals

43%

Pirin Razlog 3+ goals

18%

Oborishte 1+ goals

71%

Oborishte 2+ goals

36%

Oborishte 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)

56%

Oborishte (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Razlog at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.11 · 130 matches

Oborishte away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.56 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Razlog attack 1.35 + Oborishte defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.46

Oborishte attack 1.39 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pirin Razlog scores more

42%

level

26%

Oborishte scores more

32%

Pirin Razlog at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pirin Razlog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff