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Oborishte vs Pirin Razlog — Third League - Southwest 2018

Oborishte
Oborishte
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pirin Razlog
Pirin Razlog
11/9/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 17Stadio Orcho voyvoda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Oborishte54%
×Draw25%
Pirin Razlog21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oborishte
1.64
Pirin Razlog
0.92

Oborishte creates 78% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 131 away

creates per match

Oborishte
1.70
Pirin Razlog
0.98

allows per match

Oborishte
0.85
Pirin Razlog
1.57

finishing

Oborishte+0.00on par
Pirin Razlog+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oborishte ↓

Pirin Razlog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Oborishte or draw
79%
Oborishte or Pirin Razlog
75%
Draw or Pirin Razlog
46%

Winning margin

Oborishte wins by 2+
29%
Pirin Razlog wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Oborishte 1+ goals
81%
Oborishte 2+ goals
49%
Oborishte 3+ goals
23%
Pirin Razlog 1+ goals
60%
Pirin Razlog 2+ goals
23%
Pirin Razlog 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oborishte (draw refunded)
72%
Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oborishte at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.85 · 131 matches

Pirin Razlog away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oborishte attack 1.70 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.64

Pirin Razlog attack 0.98 + Oborishte defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Oborishte scores more
54%
level
25%
Pirin Razlog scores more
21%

Oborishte at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Oborishte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oborishte 2 – 0 Pirin Razlog

Oborishte beat Pirin Razlog 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Orcho voyvoda in Panagyurishte.