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Pirin Razlog vs Levski Rakovski — Third League - Southwest 2018

Pirin Razlog
Pirin Razlog
FT
2 – 1
Levski Rakovski
Levski Rakovski
5/27/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - Relegation Round - 11Stadion Septemvri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Pirin Razlog55%
×Draw23%
Levski Rakovski21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Razlog
1.77
Levski Rakovski
1.00

Pirin Razlog creates 77% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 16 away

creates per match

Pirin Razlog
1.35
Levski Rakovski
0.88

allows per match

Pirin Razlog
1.11
Levski Rakovski
2.19

finishing

Pirin Razlog+0.00on par
Levski Rakovski+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Razlog ↓

Levski Rakovski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Pirin Razlog or draw
79%
Pirin Razlog or Levski Rakovski
77%
Draw or Levski Rakovski
45%

Winning margin

Pirin Razlog wins by 2+
31%
Levski Rakovski wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Pirin Razlog 1+ goals
83%
Pirin Razlog 2+ goals
53%
Pirin Razlog 3+ goals
26%
Levski Rakovski 1+ goals
63%
Levski Rakovski 2+ goals
26%
Levski Rakovski 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)
72%
Levski Rakovski (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Razlog at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.11 · 130 matches

Levski Rakovski away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Razlog attack 1.35 + Levski Rakovski defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.77

Levski Rakovski attack 0.88 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Pirin Razlog scores more
55%
level
23%
Levski Rakovski scores more
21%

Pirin Razlog at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Pirin Razlog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Pirin Razlog 2–1 Levski Rakovski

Pirin Razlog beat Levski Rakovski 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Septemvri in Razlog.