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Levski Rakovski vs Pirin Razlog — Third League - Southwest 2018

Levski Rakovski
Levski Rakovski
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pirin Razlog
Pirin Razlog
5/17/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - Relegation Round - 5Stadion Rakovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Levski Rakovski37%
×Draw27%
Pirin Razlog36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Rakovski
1.29
Pirin Razlog
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 131 away

creates per match

Levski Rakovski
1.00
Pirin Razlog
0.98

allows per match

Levski Rakovski
1.56
Pirin Razlog
1.57

finishing

Levski Rakovski+0.00on par
Pirin Razlog+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Rakovski ↓

Pirin Razlog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Levski Rakovski or draw
64%
Levski Rakovski or Pirin Razlog
73%
Draw or Pirin Razlog
63%

Winning margin

Levski Rakovski wins by 2+
16%
Pirin Razlog wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Levski Rakovski 1+ goals
72%
Levski Rakovski 2+ goals
37%
Levski Rakovski 3+ goals
14%
Pirin Razlog 1+ goals
72%
Pirin Razlog 2+ goals
36%
Pirin Razlog 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Levski Rakovski (draw refunded)
51%
Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Rakovski at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Pirin Razlog away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Rakovski attack 1.00 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Pirin Razlog attack 0.98 + Levski Rakovski defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Levski Rakovski scores more
37%
level
27%
Pirin Razlog scores more
36%

Levski Rakovski at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Levski Rakovski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Levski Rakovski 1–0 Pirin Razlog

Levski Rakovski beat Pirin Razlog 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on May 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Rakovski in Sofia.