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Pirin Razlog vs Hebar II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Pirin Razlog
Pirin Razlog
FT
2 – 0
Hebar II
Hebar II
10/6/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 11Stadion Septemvri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Pirin Razlog52%
×Draw26%
Hebar II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Razlog
1.48
Hebar II
0.83

Pirin Razlog creates 78% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 38 away

creates per match

Pirin Razlog
1.35
Hebar II
0.55

allows per match

Pirin Razlog
1.11
Hebar II
1.61

finishing

Pirin Razlog+0.00on par
Hebar II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Razlog ↓

Hebar II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Pirin Razlog or draw
79%
Pirin Razlog or Hebar II
74%
Draw or Hebar II
48%

Winning margin

Pirin Razlog wins by 2+
27%
Hebar II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pirin Razlog 1+ goals
77%
Pirin Razlog 2+ goals
43%
Pirin Razlog 3+ goals
19%
Hebar II 1+ goals
56%
Hebar II 2+ goals
20%
Hebar II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)
71%
Hebar II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Razlog at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.11 · 130 matches

Hebar II away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Razlog attack 1.35 + Hebar II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.48

Hebar II attack 0.55 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pirin Razlog scores more
52%
level
26%
Hebar II scores more
21%

Pirin Razlog at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Pirin Razlog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pirin Razlog vs Hebar II

Pirin Razlog beat Hebar II 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on October 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Septemvri in Razlog.