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Hebar II vs Pirin Razlog — Third League - Southwest 2018

Hebar II
Hebar II
FT
4 – 1
Pirin Razlog
Pirin Razlog
11/18/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 18Stadion Saraya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hebar II46%
×Draw25%
Pirin Razlog29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebar II
1.54
Pirin Razlog
1.18

Hebar II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 131 away

creates per match

Hebar II
1.51
Pirin Razlog
0.98

allows per match

Hebar II
1.38
Pirin Razlog
1.57

finishing

Hebar II+0.00on par
Pirin Razlog+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar II ↓

Pirin Razlog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hebar II or draw
71%
Hebar II or Pirin Razlog
75%
Draw or Pirin Razlog
54%

Winning margin

Hebar II wins by 2+
23%
Pirin Razlog wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hebar II 1+ goals
79%
Hebar II 2+ goals
45%
Hebar II 3+ goals
20%
Pirin Razlog 1+ goals
69%
Pirin Razlog 2+ goals
33%
Pirin Razlog 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hebar II (draw refunded)
61%
Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.38 · 37 matches

Pirin Razlog away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar II attack 1.51 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

Pirin Razlog attack 0.98 + Hebar II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hebar II scores more
46%
level
25%
Pirin Razlog scores more
29%

Hebar II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hebar II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Hebar II 4–1 Pirin Razlog

Hebar II beat Pirin Razlog 4-1 in Third League - Southwest on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Saraya in Saraya.