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Pirin Razlog vs CSKA Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Pirin Razlog
Pirin Razlog
FT
1 – 1
CSKA Sofia II
CSKA Sofia II
2/19/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 19Stadion Septemvri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Pirin Razlog40%
×Draw26%
CSKA Sofia II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Razlog
1.40
CSKA Sofia II
1.27

Pirin Razlog creates 10% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 34 away

creates per match

Pirin Razlog
1.35
CSKA Sofia II
1.44

allows per match

Pirin Razlog
1.11
CSKA Sofia II
1.44

finishing

Pirin Razlog+0.00on par
CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Razlog ↓

CSKA Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pirin Razlog or draw
66%
Pirin Razlog or CSKA Sofia II
74%
Draw or CSKA Sofia II
60%

Winning margin

Pirin Razlog wins by 2+
19%
CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Pirin Razlog 1+ goals
75%
Pirin Razlog 2+ goals
41%
Pirin Razlog 3+ goals
17%
CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals
72%
CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals
36%
CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)
54%
CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Razlog at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.11 · 130 matches

CSKA Sofia II away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Razlog attack 1.35 + CSKA Sofia II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.40

CSKA Sofia II attack 1.44 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pirin Razlog scores more
40%
level
26%
CSKA Sofia II scores more
34%

Pirin Razlog at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pirin Razlog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pirin Razlog vs CSKA Sofia II

Pirin Razlog and CSKA Sofia II drew 1-1 in Third League - Southwest on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Septemvri in Razlog.