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CSKA Sofia II vs Pirin Razlog — Third League - Southwest 2018

CSKA Sofia II
CSKA Sofia II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Pirin Razlog
Pirin Razlog
11/2/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 8Sportna baza Pancharevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

CSKA Sofia II61%
×Draw22%
Pirin Razlog17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Sofia II
1.86
Pirin Razlog
0.86

CSKA Sofia II creates 116% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 131 away

creates per match

CSKA Sofia II
2.15
Pirin Razlog
0.98

allows per match

CSKA Sofia II
0.74
Pirin Razlog
1.57

finishing

CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par
Pirin Razlog+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia II ↓

Pirin Razlog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia II or draw
83%
CSKA Sofia II or Pirin Razlog
78%
Draw or Pirin Razlog
39%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+
36%
Pirin Razlog wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals
84%
CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals
55%
CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals
28%
Pirin Razlog 1+ goals
58%
Pirin Razlog 2+ goals
21%
Pirin Razlog 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)
78%
Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia II at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

Pirin Razlog away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia II attack 2.15 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.86

Pirin Razlog attack 0.98 + CSKA Sofia II defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

CSKA Sofia II scores more
61%
level
22%
Pirin Razlog scores more
17%

CSKA Sofia II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "CSKA Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSKA Sofia II vs Pirin Razlog

CSKA Sofia II and Pirin Razlog drew 1-1 in Third League - Southwest on November 2, 2022.

The match was played at Sportna baza Pancharevo in Sofia.