Pirin Gotse Delchev 2–0 Pirin Blagoevgrad II

Pirin Gotse Delchev

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

2/26/2022

Third League - Southwest · South-West - 21Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Pirin Gotse Delchev56%

×Draw24%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pirin Gotse DelchevExpected goals in this matchPirin Blagoevgrad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.92

Pirin Gotse Delchev

1.72

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

0.92

Pirin Gotse Delchev creates 87% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 37 away

1.40

creates per match

0.62

1.22

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Pirin Gotse Delchev

1.40

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

0.62

allows per match

Pirin Gotse Delchev

1.22

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pirin Gotse Delchev+0.00on par

Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Gotse Delchev ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Pirin Gotse Delchev or draw

80%

Pirin Gotse Delchev or Pirin Blagoevgrad II

76%

Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad II

44%

Winning margin

Pirin Gotse Delchev wins by 2+

31%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Pirin Gotse Delchev 1+ goals

82%

Pirin Gotse Delchev 2+ goals

51%

Pirin Gotse Delchev 3+ goals

25%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals

60%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals

23%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Pirin Gotse Delchev (draw refunded)

74%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Gotse Delchev at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.22 · 88 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.05 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Gotse Delchev attack 1.40 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.72

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.62 + Pirin Gotse Delchev defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Pirin Gotse Delchev scores more

56%

level

24%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more

20%

Pirin Gotse Delchev at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Pirin Gotse Delchev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff