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Pirin Blagoevgrad II vs Pirin Gotse Delchev — Third League - Southwest 2018

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
FT
1 – 2
Pirin Gotse Delchev
Pirin Gotse Delchev
8/14/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 2Stadion Rila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II40%
×Draw24%
Pirin Gotse Delchev36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
1.56
Pirin Gotse Delchev
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 86 away

creates per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
0.89
Pirin Gotse Delchev
1.07

allows per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
1.89
Pirin Gotse Delchev
2.22

finishing

Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par
Pirin Gotse Delchev+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Blagoevgrad II ↓

Pirin Gotse Delchev →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Pirin Blagoevgrad II or draw
64%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II or Pirin Gotse Delchev
76%
Draw or Pirin Gotse Delchev
60%

Winning margin

Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+
20%
Pirin Gotse Delchev wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals
79%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals
46%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals
21%
Pirin Gotse Delchev 1+ goals
77%
Pirin Gotse Delchev 2+ goals
43%
Pirin Gotse Delchev 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)
52%
Pirin Gotse Delchev (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Blagoevgrad II at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

Pirin Gotse Delchev away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.22 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.89 + Pirin Gotse Delchev defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.56

Pirin Gotse Delchev attack 1.07 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more
40%
level
24%
Pirin Gotse Delchev scores more
36%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pirin Blagoevgrad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pirin Blagoevgrad II vs Pirin Gotse Delchev

Pirin Gotse Delchev beat Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Rila in Rila.