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Pirin Gotse Delchev vs Perun Kresna — Third League - Southwest 2018

Pirin Gotse Delchev
Pirin Gotse Delchev
FT
2 – 1
Perun Kresna
Perun Kresna
5/29/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 34Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Pirin Gotse Delchev63%
×Draw21%
Perun Kresna16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Gotse Delchev
1.99
Perun Kresna
0.90

Pirin Gotse Delchev creates 121% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 26 away

creates per match

Pirin Gotse Delchev
1.40
Perun Kresna
0.58

allows per match

Pirin Gotse Delchev
1.22
Perun Kresna
2.58

finishing

Pirin Gotse Delchev+0.00on par
Perun Kresna+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Gotse Delchev ↓

Perun Kresna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Pirin Gotse Delchev or draw
84%
Pirin Gotse Delchev or Perun Kresna
79%
Draw or Perun Kresna
37%

Winning margin

Pirin Gotse Delchev wins by 2+
38%
Perun Kresna wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Pirin Gotse Delchev 1+ goals
86%
Pirin Gotse Delchev 2+ goals
59%
Pirin Gotse Delchev 3+ goals
32%
Perun Kresna 1+ goals
59%
Perun Kresna 2+ goals
23%
Perun Kresna 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Pirin Gotse Delchev (draw refunded)
79%
Perun Kresna (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Gotse Delchev at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.22 · 88 matches

Perun Kresna away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Gotse Delchev attack 1.40 + Perun Kresna defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.99

Perun Kresna attack 0.58 + Pirin Gotse Delchev defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Pirin Gotse Delchev scores more
63%
level
21%
Perun Kresna scores more
16%

Pirin Gotse Delchev at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Pirin Gotse Delchev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Pirin Gotse Delchev 2–1 Perun Kresna

Pirin Gotse Delchev beat Perun Kresna 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Gotse Delchev.