Perun Kresna 0–4 Pirin Gotse Delchev

Perun Kresna

FT

0 – 4

Pirin Gotse Delchev

10/3/2020

Third League - Southwest · South-West - 9Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Perun Kresna37%

×Draw24%

Pirin Gotse Delchev38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Perun KresnaExpected goals in this matchPirin Gotse Delchev

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.50

Perun Kresna

1.48

Pirin Gotse Delchev

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 86 away

0.73

creates per match

1.07

1.92

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Perun Kresna

0.73

Pirin Gotse Delchev

1.07

allows per match

Perun Kresna

1.92

Pirin Gotse Delchev

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Perun Kresna+0.00on par

Pirin Gotse Delchev+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perun Kresna ↓

Pirin Gotse Delchev →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Perun Kresna or draw

62%

Perun Kresna or Pirin Gotse Delchev

76%

Draw or Pirin Gotse Delchev

63%

Winning margin

Perun Kresna wins by 2+

18%

Pirin Gotse Delchev wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Perun Kresna 1+ goals

77%

Perun Kresna 2+ goals

43%

Perun Kresna 3+ goals

19%

Pirin Gotse Delchev 1+ goals

78%

Pirin Gotse Delchev 2+ goals

44%

Pirin Gotse Delchev 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Perun Kresna (draw refunded)

49%

Pirin Gotse Delchev (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perun Kresna at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Pirin Gotse Delchev away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.22 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perun Kresna attack 0.73 + Pirin Gotse Delchev defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.48

Pirin Gotse Delchev attack 1.07 + Perun Kresna defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Perun Kresna scores more

37%

level

24%

Pirin Gotse Delchev scores more

38%

Pirin Gotse Delchev at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pirin Gotse Delchev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff