Pirin Gotse Delchev 0–1 Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

Pirin Gotse Delchev

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

5/17/2023

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - Relegation Round - 8Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Pirin Gotse Delchev54%

×Draw22%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pirin Gotse DelchevExpected goals in this matchNadezhda Dobroslavtsi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.16

Pirin Gotse Delchev

1.89

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.16

Pirin Gotse Delchev creates 63% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 78 away

1.40

creates per match

1.09

1.22

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Pirin Gotse Delchev

1.40

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.09

allows per match

Pirin Gotse Delchev

1.22

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pirin Gotse Delchev+0.00on par

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Gotse Delchev ↓

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Pirin Gotse Delchev or draw

77%

Pirin Gotse Delchev or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

78%

Draw or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

46%

Winning margin

Pirin Gotse Delchev wins by 2+

31%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Pirin Gotse Delchev 1+ goals

85%

Pirin Gotse Delchev 2+ goals

56%

Pirin Gotse Delchev 3+ goals

29%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals

69%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals

32%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Pirin Gotse Delchev (draw refunded)

70%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Gotse Delchev at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.22 · 88 matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.37 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Gotse Delchev attack 1.40 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.89

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.09 + Pirin Gotse Delchev defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Pirin Gotse Delchev scores more

54%

level

22%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more

23%

Pirin Gotse Delchev at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Pirin Gotse Delchev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff