Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 0–0 Pirin Gotse Delchev

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pirin Gotse Delchev

3/25/2023

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - Relegation Round - 2Stadion Dobroslavtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi51%

×Draw23%

Pirin Gotse Delchev26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nadezhda DobroslavtsiExpected goals in this matchPirin Gotse Delchev

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.20

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.79

Pirin Gotse Delchev

1.20

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi creates 49% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 86 away

1.35

creates per match

1.07

1.32

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.35

Pirin Gotse Delchev

1.07

allows per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.32

Pirin Gotse Delchev

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par

Pirin Gotse Delchev+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi ↓

Pirin Gotse Delchev →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or draw

74%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or Pirin Gotse Delchev

77%

Draw or Pirin Gotse Delchev

49%

Winning margin

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+

28%

Pirin Gotse Delchev wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals

83%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals

53%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals

26%

Pirin Gotse Delchev 1+ goals

70%

Pirin Gotse Delchev 2+ goals

34%

Pirin Gotse Delchev 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)

67%

Pirin Gotse Delchev (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

Pirin Gotse Delchev away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.22 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.35 + Pirin Gotse Delchev defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.79

Pirin Gotse Delchev attack 1.07 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more

51%

level

23%

Pirin Gotse Delchev scores more

26%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff