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Pirin Gotse Delchev vs Levski Rakovski — Third League - Southwest 2018

Pirin Gotse Delchev
Pirin Gotse Delchev
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Levski Rakovski
Levski Rakovski
10/8/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 10Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Pirin Gotse Delchev55%
×Draw23%
Levski Rakovski22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Gotse Delchev
1.79
Levski Rakovski
1.05

Pirin Gotse Delchev creates 70% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 16 away

creates per match

Pirin Gotse Delchev
1.40
Levski Rakovski
0.88

allows per match

Pirin Gotse Delchev
1.22
Levski Rakovski
2.19

finishing

Pirin Gotse Delchev+0.00on par
Levski Rakovski+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Gotse Delchev ↓

Levski Rakovski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Pirin Gotse Delchev or draw
78%
Pirin Gotse Delchev or Levski Rakovski
77%
Draw or Levski Rakovski
45%

Winning margin

Pirin Gotse Delchev wins by 2+
31%
Levski Rakovski wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Pirin Gotse Delchev 1+ goals
83%
Pirin Gotse Delchev 2+ goals
53%
Pirin Gotse Delchev 3+ goals
26%
Levski Rakovski 1+ goals
65%
Levski Rakovski 2+ goals
28%
Levski Rakovski 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pirin Gotse Delchev (draw refunded)
71%
Levski Rakovski (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Gotse Delchev at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.22 · 88 matches

Levski Rakovski away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Gotse Delchev attack 1.40 + Levski Rakovski defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.79

Levski Rakovski attack 0.88 + Pirin Gotse Delchev defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Pirin Gotse Delchev scores more
55%
level
23%
Levski Rakovski scores more
22%

Pirin Gotse Delchev at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Pirin Gotse Delchev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pirin Gotse Delchev vs Levski Rakovski

Levski Rakovski beat Pirin Gotse Delchev 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Gotse Delchev.