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Levski Rakovski vs Pirin Gotse Delchev — Third League - Southwest 2018

Levski Rakovski
Levski Rakovski
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Pirin Gotse Delchev
Pirin Gotse Delchev
3/4/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 21Stadion Rakovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Levski Rakovski44%
×Draw24%
Pirin Gotse Delchev31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Rakovski
1.61
Pirin Gotse Delchev
1.31

Levski Rakovski creates 23% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 86 away

creates per match

Levski Rakovski
1.00
Pirin Gotse Delchev
1.07

allows per match

Levski Rakovski
1.56
Pirin Gotse Delchev
2.22

finishing

Levski Rakovski+0.00on par
Pirin Gotse Delchev+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Rakovski ↓

Pirin Gotse Delchev →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Levski Rakovski or draw
69%
Levski Rakovski or Pirin Gotse Delchev
76%
Draw or Pirin Gotse Delchev
56%

Winning margin

Levski Rakovski wins by 2+
23%
Pirin Gotse Delchev wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Levski Rakovski 1+ goals
80%
Levski Rakovski 2+ goals
48%
Levski Rakovski 3+ goals
22%
Pirin Gotse Delchev 1+ goals
73%
Pirin Gotse Delchev 2+ goals
38%
Pirin Gotse Delchev 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Levski Rakovski (draw refunded)
59%
Pirin Gotse Delchev (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Rakovski at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Pirin Gotse Delchev away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.22 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Rakovski attack 1.00 + Pirin Gotse Delchev defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.61

Pirin Gotse Delchev attack 1.07 + Levski Rakovski defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Levski Rakovski scores more
44%
level
24%
Pirin Gotse Delchev scores more
31%

Levski Rakovski at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Levski Rakovski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Rakovski vs Pirin Gotse Delchev

Pirin Gotse Delchev beat Levski Rakovski 4-2 in Third League - Southwest on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Rakovski in Sofia.