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Pirin Gotse Delchev vs Levski Chepintsi — Third League - Southwest 2018

Pirin Gotse Delchev
Pirin Gotse Delchev
FT
3 – 1
Levski Chepintsi
Levski Chepintsi
4/21/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 23Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Pirin Gotse Delchev73%
×Draw16%
Levski Chepintsi11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Gotse Delchev
2.59
Levski Chepintsi
0.92

Pirin Gotse Delchev creates 182% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 36 away

creates per match

Pirin Gotse Delchev
1.40
Levski Chepintsi
0.61

allows per match

Pirin Gotse Delchev
1.22
Levski Chepintsi
3.78

finishing

Pirin Gotse Delchev+0.00on par
Levski Chepintsi+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Gotse Delchev ↓

Levski Chepintsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Pirin Gotse Delchev or draw
89%
Pirin Gotse Delchev or Levski Chepintsi
84%
Draw or Levski Chepintsi
27%

Winning margin

Pirin Gotse Delchev wins by 2+
51%
Levski Chepintsi wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Pirin Gotse Delchev 1+ goals
92%
Pirin Gotse Delchev 2+ goals
73%
Pirin Gotse Delchev 3+ goals
47%
Levski Chepintsi 1+ goals
60%
Levski Chepintsi 2+ goals
23%
Levski Chepintsi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pirin Gotse Delchev (draw refunded)
87%
Levski Chepintsi (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Gotse Delchev at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.22 · 88 matches

Levski Chepintsi away — creates 0.61, concedes 3.78 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Gotse Delchev attack 1.40 + Levski Chepintsi defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.59

Levski Chepintsi attack 0.61 + Pirin Gotse Delchev defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Pirin Gotse Delchev scores more
73%
level
16%
Levski Chepintsi scores more
11%

Pirin Gotse Delchev at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Pirin Gotse Delchev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Pirin Gotse Delchev 3–1 Levski Chepintsi

Pirin Gotse Delchev beat Levski Chepintsi 3-1 in Third League - Southwest on April 21, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Gotse Delchev.