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Levski Chepintsi vs Pirin Gotse Delchev — Third League - Southwest 2018

Levski Chepintsi
Levski Chepintsi
FT
0 – 2
Pirin Gotse Delchev
Pirin Gotse Delchev
10/9/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 12Stadion Chepintsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Levski Chepintsi39%
×Draw24%
Pirin Gotse Delchev37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Chepintsi
1.52
Pirin Gotse Delchev
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 86 away

creates per match

Levski Chepintsi
0.81
Pirin Gotse Delchev
1.07

allows per match

Levski Chepintsi
1.86
Pirin Gotse Delchev
2.22

finishing

Levski Chepintsi+0.00on par
Pirin Gotse Delchev+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Chepintsi ↓

Pirin Gotse Delchev →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Levski Chepintsi or draw
63%
Levski Chepintsi or Pirin Gotse Delchev
76%
Draw or Pirin Gotse Delchev
61%

Winning margin

Levski Chepintsi wins by 2+
19%
Pirin Gotse Delchev wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Levski Chepintsi 1+ goals
78%
Levski Chepintsi 2+ goals
45%
Levski Chepintsi 3+ goals
20%
Pirin Gotse Delchev 1+ goals
77%
Pirin Gotse Delchev 2+ goals
43%
Pirin Gotse Delchev 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Levski Chepintsi (draw refunded)
51%
Pirin Gotse Delchev (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Chepintsi at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.86 · 36 matches

Pirin Gotse Delchev away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.22 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Chepintsi attack 0.81 + Pirin Gotse Delchev defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.52

Pirin Gotse Delchev attack 1.07 + Levski Chepintsi defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Levski Chepintsi scores more
39%
level
24%
Pirin Gotse Delchev scores more
37%

Levski Chepintsi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Levski Chepintsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Chepintsi vs Pirin Gotse Delchev

Pirin Gotse Delchev beat Levski Chepintsi 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Chepintsi in Chepintsi.