Pirin Gotse Delchev 0–3 CSKA 1948 Sofia III

Pirin Gotse Delchev

FT

0 – 3

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

4/5/2025

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 28Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pirin Gotse Delchev46%

×Draw25%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pirin Gotse DelchevExpected goals in this matchCSKA 1948 Sofia III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.21

Pirin Gotse Delchev

1.59

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.21

Pirin Gotse Delchev creates 31% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 52 away

1.40

creates per match

1.21

1.22

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Pirin Gotse Delchev

1.40

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.21

allows per match

Pirin Gotse Delchev

1.22

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pirin Gotse Delchev+0.00on par

CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Gotse Delchev ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia III →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Pirin Gotse Delchev or draw

71%

Pirin Gotse Delchev or CSKA 1948 Sofia III

75%

Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia III

54%

Winning margin

Pirin Gotse Delchev wins by 2+

24%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pirin Gotse Delchev 1+ goals

80%

Pirin Gotse Delchev 2+ goals

47%

Pirin Gotse Delchev 3+ goals

21%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals

70%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals

34%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pirin Gotse Delchev (draw refunded)

61%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Gotse Delchev at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.22 · 88 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Gotse Delchev attack 1.40 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.59

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.21 + Pirin Gotse Delchev defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pirin Gotse Delchev scores more

46%

level

25%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more

29%

Pirin Gotse Delchev at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pirin Gotse Delchev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff