CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2–2 Pirin Gotse Delchev

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Pirin Gotse Delchev

9/14/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 9Stadion NSA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III53%

×Draw23%

Pirin Gotse Delchev25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA 1948 Sofia IIIExpected goals in this matchPirin Gotse Delchev

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.21

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.87

Pirin Gotse Delchev

1.21

CSKA 1948 Sofia III creates 55% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 86 away

1.51

creates per match

1.07

1.34

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.51

Pirin Gotse Delchev

1.07

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.34

Pirin Gotse Delchev

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par

Pirin Gotse Delchev+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia III ↓

Pirin Gotse Delchev →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia III or draw

75%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III or Pirin Gotse Delchev

77%

Draw or Pirin Gotse Delchev

47%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+

30%

Pirin Gotse Delchev wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals

85%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals

56%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals

29%

Pirin Gotse Delchev 1+ goals

70%

Pirin Gotse Delchev 2+ goals

34%

Pirin Gotse Delchev 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)

68%

Pirin Gotse Delchev (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

Pirin Gotse Delchev away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.22 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.51 + Pirin Gotse Delchev defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.87

Pirin Gotse Delchev attack 1.07 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more

53%

level

23%

Pirin Gotse Delchev scores more

25%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff