Pirin Blagoevgrad 0–0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Pirin Blagoevgrad

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

10/28/2022

First League · Round 16Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad35%

×Draw27%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pirin BlagoevgradExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Plovdiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.26

Pirin Blagoevgrad

1.22

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 136 away

1.13

creates per match

1.15

1.38

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad

1.13

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.15

allows per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad

1.38

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pirin Blagoevgrad+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Blagoevgrad ↓

Lokomotiv Plovdiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Pirin Blagoevgrad or draw

63%

Pirin Blagoevgrad or Lokomotiv Plovdiv

73%

Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv

65%

Winning margin

Pirin Blagoevgrad wins by 2+

15%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad 1+ goals

70%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 2+ goals

34%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 3+ goals

12%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals

72%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals

36%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Pirin Blagoevgrad (draw refunded)

49%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Blagoevgrad at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.31 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Blagoevgrad attack 1.13 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.15 + Pirin Blagoevgrad defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pirin Blagoevgrad scores more

35%

level

27%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more

37%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff