Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2–1 Pirin Blagoevgrad

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Pirin Blagoevgrad

7/9/2022

First League · Round 1Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv51%

×Draw28%

Pirin Blagoevgrad22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv PlovdivExpected goals in this matchPirin Blagoevgrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.81

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.39

Pirin Blagoevgrad

0.81

Lokomotiv Plovdiv creates 72% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 51 away

1.34

creates per match

0.69

0.94

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.34

Pirin Blagoevgrad

0.69

allows per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

0.94

Pirin Blagoevgrad

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.00on par

Pirin Blagoevgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Plovdiv ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw

78%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv or Pirin Blagoevgrad

72%

Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad

49%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+

25%

Pirin Blagoevgrad wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals

75%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals

40%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals

16%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 1+ goals

56%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 2+ goals

19%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)

70%

Pirin Blagoevgrad (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.94 · 135 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.34 + Pirin Blagoevgrad defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.39

Pirin Blagoevgrad attack 0.69 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more

51%

level

28%

Pirin Blagoevgrad scores more

22%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff