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Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Levski Sofia — First League 2026

Pirin Blagoevgrad
Pirin Blagoevgrad
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia
2/19/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 20Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad28%
×Draw27%
Levski Sofia45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.03
Levski Sofia
1.40

Levski Sofia creates 36% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 138 away

creates per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.13
Levski Sofia
1.41

allows per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.38
Levski Sofia
0.93

finishing

Pirin Blagoevgrad+0.00on par
Levski Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Blagoevgrad ↓

Levski Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pirin Blagoevgrad or draw
55%
Pirin Blagoevgrad or Levski Sofia
73%
Draw or Levski Sofia
72%

Winning margin

Pirin Blagoevgrad wins by 2+
10%
Levski Sofia wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad 1+ goals
64%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 2+ goals
28%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 3+ goals
9%
Levski Sofia 1+ goals
75%
Levski Sofia 2+ goals
41%
Levski Sofia 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pirin Blagoevgrad (draw refunded)
38%
Levski Sofia (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Blagoevgrad at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Levski Sofia away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.93 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Blagoevgrad attack 1.13 + Levski Sofia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Levski Sofia attack 1.41 + Pirin Blagoevgrad defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pirin Blagoevgrad scores more
28%
level
27%
Levski Sofia scores more
45%

Levski Sofia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Levski Sofia

Pirin Blagoevgrad and Levski Sofia drew 1-1 in First League on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Blagoevgrad.