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Levski Sofia vs Pirin Blagoevgrad — First League 2026

Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Pirin Blagoevgrad
8/7/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 5Vivacom Arena - Georgi Asparuhov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Levski Sofia57%
×Draw26%
Pirin Blagoevgrad17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Sofia
1.54
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.72

Levski Sofia creates 114% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 51 away

creates per match

Levski Sofia
1.66
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.69

allows per match

Levski Sofia
0.76
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.43

finishing

Levski Sofia+0.00on par
Pirin Blagoevgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Sofia ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Levski Sofia or draw
83%
Levski Sofia or Pirin Blagoevgrad
74%
Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad
43%

Winning margin

Levski Sofia wins by 2+
30%
Pirin Blagoevgrad wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Levski Sofia 1+ goals
79%
Levski Sofia 2+ goals
45%
Levski Sofia 3+ goals
20%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 1+ goals
51%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 2+ goals
16%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Levski Sofia (draw refunded)
77%
Pirin Blagoevgrad (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Sofia at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.76 · 137 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Sofia attack 1.66 + Pirin Blagoevgrad defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.54

Pirin Blagoevgrad attack 0.69 + Levski Sofia defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Levski Sofia scores more
57%
level
26%
Pirin Blagoevgrad scores more
17%

Levski Sofia at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Sofia vs Pirin Blagoevgrad

Levski Sofia beat Pirin Blagoevgrad 1-0 in First League on August 7, 2022.

The match was played at Vivacom Arena - Georgi Asparuhov in Sofia.