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Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Levski Krumovgrad — First League 2018

Pirin Blagoevgrad
Pirin Blagoevgrad
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
9/24/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 10Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad41%
×Draw28%
Levski Krumovgrad31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.24
Levski Krumovgrad
1.03

Pirin Blagoevgrad creates 20% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 37 away

creates per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.13
Levski Krumovgrad
0.68

allows per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.38
Levski Krumovgrad
1.35

finishing

Pirin Blagoevgrad+0.00on par
Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Blagoevgrad ↓

Levski Krumovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Pirin Blagoevgrad or draw
69%
Pirin Blagoevgrad or Levski Krumovgrad
72%
Draw or Levski Krumovgrad
59%

Winning margin

Pirin Blagoevgrad wins by 2+
18%
Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad 1+ goals
71%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 2+ goals
35%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 3+ goals
13%
Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
64%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
28%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pirin Blagoevgrad (draw refunded)
57%
Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Blagoevgrad at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Levski Krumovgrad away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.35 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Blagoevgrad attack 1.13 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Levski Krumovgrad attack 0.68 + Pirin Blagoevgrad defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pirin Blagoevgrad scores more
41%
level
28%
Levski Krumovgrad scores more
31%

Pirin Blagoevgrad at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pirin Blagoevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Pirin Blagoevgrad 1–0 Levski Krumovgrad

Pirin Blagoevgrad beat Levski Krumovgrad 1-0 in First League on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Blagoevgrad.