Levski Krumovgrad 2–2 Pirin Blagoevgrad

Levski Krumovgrad

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Pirin Blagoevgrad

3/17/2024

First League · Round 25Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Levski Krumovgrad45%

×Draw29%

Pirin Blagoevgrad26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski KrumovgradExpected goals in this matchPirin Blagoevgrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.91

Levski Krumovgrad

1.28

Pirin Blagoevgrad

0.91

Levski Krumovgrad creates 41% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 51 away

1.14

creates per match

0.69

1.14

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Levski Krumovgrad

1.14

Pirin Blagoevgrad

0.69

allows per match

Levski Krumovgrad

1.14

Pirin Blagoevgrad

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Pirin Blagoevgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Krumovgrad ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Levski Krumovgrad or draw

74%

Levski Krumovgrad or Pirin Blagoevgrad

71%

Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad

55%

Winning margin

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+

21%

Pirin Blagoevgrad wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals

72%

Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals

37%

Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals

14%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 1+ goals

60%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 2+ goals

23%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)

63%

Pirin Blagoevgrad (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Krumovgrad at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 35 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Krumovgrad attack 1.14 + Pirin Blagoevgrad defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Pirin Blagoevgrad attack 0.69 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Levski Krumovgrad scores more

45%

level

29%

Pirin Blagoevgrad scores more

26%

Levski Krumovgrad at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff