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Pirin Blagoevgrad vs CSKA 1948 — First League 2026

Pirin Blagoevgrad
Pirin Blagoevgrad
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
CSKA 1948
CSKA 1948
7/17/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad32%
×Draw27%
CSKA 194841%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.11
CSKA 1948
1.30

CSKA 1948 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 105 away

creates per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.13
CSKA 1948
1.22

allows per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.38
CSKA 1948
1.09

finishing

Pirin Blagoevgrad+0.00on par
CSKA 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Blagoevgrad ↓

CSKA 1948 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pirin Blagoevgrad or draw
59%
Pirin Blagoevgrad or CSKA 1948
73%
Draw or CSKA 1948
68%

Winning margin

Pirin Blagoevgrad wins by 2+
13%
CSKA 1948 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad 1+ goals
67%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 2+ goals
30%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 3+ goals
10%
CSKA 1948 1+ goals
73%
CSKA 1948 2+ goals
37%
CSKA 1948 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pirin Blagoevgrad (draw refunded)
44%
CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Blagoevgrad at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

CSKA 1948 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Blagoevgrad attack 1.13 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.11

CSKA 1948 attack 1.22 + Pirin Blagoevgrad defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pirin Blagoevgrad scores more
32%
level
27%
CSKA 1948 scores more
41%

CSKA 1948 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Pirin Blagoevgrad 1–1 CSKA 1948

Pirin Blagoevgrad and CSKA 1948 drew 1-1 in First League on July 17, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Blagoevgrad.