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CSKA 1948 vs Pirin Blagoevgrad — First League 2026

CSKA 1948
CSKA 1948
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Pirin Blagoevgrad
7/21/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

CSKA 194851%
×Draw27%
Pirin Blagoevgrad22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948
1.47
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.86

CSKA 1948 creates 71% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 51 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948
1.51
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.69

allows per match

CSKA 1948
1.03
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.43

finishing

CSKA 1948+0.00on par
Pirin Blagoevgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 or draw
78%
CSKA 1948 or Pirin Blagoevgrad
73%
Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad
49%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+
26%
Pirin Blagoevgrad wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 1+ goals
77%
CSKA 1948 2+ goals
43%
CSKA 1948 3+ goals
18%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 1+ goals
58%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 2+ goals
21%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)
70%
Pirin Blagoevgrad (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.03 · 104 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 attack 1.51 + Pirin Blagoevgrad defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.47

Pirin Blagoevgrad attack 0.69 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

CSKA 1948 scores more
51%
level
27%
Pirin Blagoevgrad scores more
22%

CSKA 1948 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSKA 1948 vs Pirin Blagoevgrad

CSKA 1948 beat Pirin Blagoevgrad 3-0 in First League on July 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Vitosha in Bistrica.