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Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Botev Vratsa — First League 2026

Pirin Blagoevgrad
Pirin Blagoevgrad
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa
5/27/2023First LeagueFirst League · Relegation Round - 3Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad45%
×Draw26%
Botev Vratsa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.51
Botev Vratsa
1.16

Pirin Blagoevgrad creates 30% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 136 away

creates per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.13
Botev Vratsa
0.93

allows per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.38
Botev Vratsa
1.89

finishing

Pirin Blagoevgrad+0.00on par
Botev Vratsa+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Blagoevgrad ↓

Botev Vratsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pirin Blagoevgrad or draw
71%
Pirin Blagoevgrad or Botev Vratsa
74%
Draw or Botev Vratsa
55%

Winning margin

Pirin Blagoevgrad wins by 2+
23%
Botev Vratsa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad 1+ goals
78%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 2+ goals
44%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 3+ goals
19%
Botev Vratsa 1+ goals
69%
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
32%
Botev Vratsa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pirin Blagoevgrad (draw refunded)
61%
Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Blagoevgrad at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Botev Vratsa away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.89 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Blagoevgrad attack 1.13 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.51

Botev Vratsa attack 0.93 + Pirin Blagoevgrad defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pirin Blagoevgrad scores more
45%
level
26%
Botev Vratsa scores more
29%

Pirin Blagoevgrad at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pirin Blagoevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Pirin Blagoevgrad 2–0 Botev Vratsa

Pirin Blagoevgrad beat Botev Vratsa 2-0 in First League on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Blagoevgrad.