Botev Vratsa 1–2 Pirin Blagoevgrad: Result & Stats

Botev Vratsa

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Pirin Blagoevgrad

2/23/2024

First League · Round 22Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Botev Vratsa44%

×Draw29%

Pirin Blagoevgrad27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev VratsaExpected goals in this matchPirin Blagoevgrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.91

Botev Vratsa

1.23

Pirin Blagoevgrad

0.91

Botev Vratsa creates 35% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 51 away

1.04

creates per match

0.69

1.12

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Botev Vratsa

1.04

Pirin Blagoevgrad

0.69

allows per match

Botev Vratsa

1.12

Pirin Blagoevgrad

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Vratsa+0.00on par

Pirin Blagoevgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa or draw

73%

Botev Vratsa or Pirin Blagoevgrad

71%

Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad

56%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa wins by 2+

19%

Pirin Blagoevgrad wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa 1+ goals

71%

Botev Vratsa 2+ goals

35%

Botev Vratsa 3+ goals

13%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 1+ goals

60%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 2+ goals

23%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)

61%

Pirin Blagoevgrad (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.12 · 139 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa attack 1.04 + Pirin Blagoevgrad defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Pirin Blagoevgrad attack 0.69 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Botev Vratsa scores more

44%

level

29%

Pirin Blagoevgrad scores more

27%

Botev Vratsa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Botev Vratsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff