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Pirin Blagoevgrad II vs Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi — Third League - Southwest 2018

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
FT
0 – 2
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
10/23/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 14Stadion Rila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II41%
×Draw24%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
1.63
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 78 away

creates per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
0.89
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.09

allows per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
1.89
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
2.37

finishing

Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Blagoevgrad II ↓

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Pirin Blagoevgrad II or draw
65%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
76%
Draw or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
59%

Winning margin

Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+
21%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals
80%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals
48%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals
22%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals
77%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals
44%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)
54%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Blagoevgrad II at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.37 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.89 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.63

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.09 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more
41%
level
24%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more
35%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pirin Blagoevgrad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pirin Blagoevgrad II vs Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi beat Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Rila in Rila.