Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 4–0 Pirin Blagoevgrad II

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

FT

4 – 0

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

5/7/2022

Third League - Southwest · South-West - 33Stadion Dobroslavtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi54%

×Draw24%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nadezhda DobroslavtsiExpected goals in this matchPirin Blagoevgrad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.97

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.70

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

0.97

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi creates 75% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 37 away

1.35

creates per match

0.62

1.32

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.35

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

0.62

allows per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.32

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par

Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or draw

79%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or Pirin Blagoevgrad II

76%

Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad II

46%

Winning margin

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+

30%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals

82%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals

51%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals

24%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals

62%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals

25%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)

72%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.05 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.35 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.70

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.62 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more

54%

level

24%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more

21%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff