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Pirin Blagoevgrad II vs Kyustendil — Third League - Southwest 2018

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
FT
0 – 5
Kyustendil
Kyustendil
9/4/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 6Stadion Rila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II23%
×Draw24%
Kyustendil53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
1.06
Kyustendil
1.73

Kyustendil creates 63% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 114 away

creates per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
0.89
Kyustendil
1.56

allows per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
1.89
Kyustendil
1.24

finishing

Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par
Kyustendil+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Blagoevgrad II ↓

Kyustendil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Pirin Blagoevgrad II or draw
47%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II or Kyustendil
76%
Draw or Kyustendil
77%

Winning margin

Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+
9%
Kyustendil wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals
65%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals
29%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals
9%
Kyustendil 1+ goals
82%
Kyustendil 2+ goals
52%
Kyustendil 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)
30%
Kyustendil (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Blagoevgrad II at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

Kyustendil away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.24 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.89 + Kyustendil defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Kyustendil attack 1.56 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more
23%
level
24%
Kyustendil scores more
53%

Kyustendil at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kyustendil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Pirin Blagoevgrad II 0–5 Kyustendil

Kyustendil beat Pirin Blagoevgrad II 5-0 in Third League - Southwest on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Rila in Rila.