Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kyustendil vs Pirin Blagoevgrad II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Kyustendil
Kyustendil
FT
5 – 0
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
2/22/2025Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 20Stadion Osogovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Kyustendil69%
×Draw19%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyustendil
2.07
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
0.72

Kyustendil creates 188% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 37 away

creates per match

Kyustendil
2.09
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
0.62

allows per match

Kyustendil
0.81
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
2.05

finishing

Kyustendil+0.00on par
Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyustendil ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kyustendil or draw
88%
Kyustendil or Pirin Blagoevgrad II
81%
Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad II
31%

Winning margin

Kyustendil wins by 2+
44%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kyustendil 1+ goals
87%
Kyustendil 2+ goals
61%
Kyustendil 3+ goals
34%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals
51%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals
16%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kyustendil (draw refunded)
85%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyustendil at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.81 · 112 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.05 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyustendil attack 2.09 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.07

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.62 + Kyustendil defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Kyustendil scores more
69%
level
19%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more
12%

Kyustendil at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Kyustendil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kyustendil vs Pirin Blagoevgrad II

Kyustendil beat Pirin Blagoevgrad II 5-0 in Third League - Southwest on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Osogovo in Kyustendil.