Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2–0 Hebar II: Result & Stats

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

FT

2 – 0

Hebar II

3/19/2022

Third League - Southwest · South-West - 24Stadion Rila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II37%

×Draw27%

Hebar II36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pirin Blagoevgrad IIExpected goals in this matchHebar II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.22

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

1.25

Hebar II

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 38 away

0.89

creates per match

0.55

1.89

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

0.89

Hebar II

0.55

allows per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

1.89

Hebar II

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par

Hebar II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Blagoevgrad II ↓

Hebar II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Pirin Blagoevgrad II or draw

64%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II or Hebar II

73%

Draw or Hebar II

63%

Winning margin

Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+

16%

Hebar II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals

71%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals

36%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals

13%

Hebar II 1+ goals

70%

Hebar II 2+ goals

34%

Hebar II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)

51%

Hebar II (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Blagoevgrad II at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

Hebar II away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.89 + Hebar II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.25

Hebar II attack 0.55 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more

37%

level

27%

Hebar II scores more

36%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pirin Blagoevgrad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff