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Hebar II vs Pirin Blagoevgrad II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Hebar II
Hebar II
FT
2 – 2
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
8/29/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 5Stadion Chepinets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hebar II56%
×Draw23%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebar II
1.78
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
1.00

Hebar II creates 78% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 37 away

creates per match

Hebar II
1.51
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
0.62

allows per match

Hebar II
1.38
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
2.05

finishing

Hebar II+0.00on par
Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar II ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hebar II or draw
79%
Hebar II or Pirin Blagoevgrad II
77%
Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad II
44%

Winning margin

Hebar II wins by 2+
31%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hebar II 1+ goals
83%
Hebar II 2+ goals
53%
Hebar II 3+ goals
26%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals
63%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals
26%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hebar II (draw refunded)
72%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.38 · 37 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.05 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar II attack 1.51 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.78

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.62 + Hebar II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hebar II scores more
56%
level
23%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more
21%

Hebar II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hebar II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hebar II vs Pirin Blagoevgrad II

Hebar II and Pirin Blagoevgrad II drew 2-2 in Third League - Southwest on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Chepinets in Velingrad.