Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2–3 CSKA Sofia III

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

CSKA Sofia III

9/25/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 9Stadion Rila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II30%

×Draw26%

CSKA Sofia III44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pirin Blagoevgrad IIExpected goals in this matchCSKA Sofia III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.50

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

1.19

CSKA Sofia III

1.50

CSKA Sofia III creates 26% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 35 away

0.89

creates per match

1.11

1.89

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

0.89

CSKA Sofia III

1.11

allows per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

1.89

CSKA Sofia III

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par

CSKA Sofia III+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Blagoevgrad II ↓

CSKA Sofia III →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Pirin Blagoevgrad II or draw

56%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II or CSKA Sofia III

74%

Draw or CSKA Sofia III

70%

Winning margin

Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+

12%

CSKA Sofia III wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals

70%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals

33%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals

12%

CSKA Sofia III 1+ goals

78%

CSKA Sofia III 2+ goals

44%

CSKA Sofia III 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)

40%

CSKA Sofia III (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Blagoevgrad II at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

CSKA Sofia III away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.49 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.89 + CSKA Sofia III defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.19

CSKA Sofia III attack 1.11 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more

30%

level

26%

CSKA Sofia III scores more

44%

CSKA Sofia III at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CSKA Sofia III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff