CSKA Sofia III 2–2 Pirin Blagoevgrad II

CSKA Sofia III

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

4/6/2025

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 28Stadion Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

CSKA Sofia III60%

×Draw22%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA Sofia IIIExpected goals in this matchPirin Blagoevgrad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.91

CSKA Sofia III

1.88

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

0.91

CSKA Sofia III creates 107% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 37 away

1.71

creates per match

0.62

1.20

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

CSKA Sofia III

1.71

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

0.62

allows per match

CSKA Sofia III

1.20

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA Sofia III+0.00on par

Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia III ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia III or draw

82%

CSKA Sofia III or Pirin Blagoevgrad II

78%

Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad II

40%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia III wins by 2+

35%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia III 1+ goals

85%

CSKA Sofia III 2+ goals

56%

CSKA Sofia III 3+ goals

29%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals

60%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals

23%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia III (draw refunded)

77%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia III at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.05 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia III attack 1.71 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.88

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.62 + CSKA Sofia III defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

CSKA Sofia III scores more

60%

level

22%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more

18%

CSKA Sofia III at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "CSKA Sofia III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff