Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2–3 Botev Ihtiman

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

FT

2 – 3

Botev Ihtiman

6/6/2025

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 38Stadion selo Riltsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II34%

×Draw26%

Botev Ihtiman41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pirin Blagoevgrad IIExpected goals in this matchBotev Ihtiman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.44

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

1.28

Botev Ihtiman

1.44

Botev Ihtiman creates 13% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 132 away

0.89

creates per match

0.98

1.89

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

0.89

Botev Ihtiman

0.98

allows per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

1.89

Botev Ihtiman

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par

Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Blagoevgrad II ↓

Botev Ihtiman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Pirin Blagoevgrad II or draw

59%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II or Botev Ihtiman

74%

Draw or Botev Ihtiman

66%

Winning margin

Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+

15%

Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals

72%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals

37%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals

14%

Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals

76%

Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals

42%

Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)

45%

Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Blagoevgrad II at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

Botev Ihtiman away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.89 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.28

Botev Ihtiman attack 0.98 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more

34%

level

26%

Botev Ihtiman scores more

41%

Botev Ihtiman at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Botev Ihtiman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff