Botev Ihtiman 2–4 Pirin Blagoevgrad II

Botev Ihtiman

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

11/23/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 19Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Botev Ihtiman58%

×Draw23%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev IhtimanExpected goals in this matchPirin Blagoevgrad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.96

Botev Ihtiman

1.84

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

0.96

Botev Ihtiman creates 92% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 37 away

1.63

creates per match

0.62

1.29

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Botev Ihtiman

1.63

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

0.62

allows per match

Botev Ihtiman

1.29

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par

Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Ihtiman ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Botev Ihtiman or draw

81%

Botev Ihtiman or Pirin Blagoevgrad II

77%

Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad II

42%

Winning margin

Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+

33%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals

84%

Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals

55%

Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals

28%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals

62%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals

25%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)

75%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Ihtiman at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.29 · 131 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.05 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Ihtiman attack 1.63 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.84

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.62 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Botev Ihtiman scores more

58%

level

23%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more

19%

Botev Ihtiman at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Botev Ihtiman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff