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Pipinsried vs Kirchheimer SC — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Pipinsried
Pipinsried
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kirchheimer SC
Kirchheimer SC
11/4/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 19Stadion an der Reichertshausener Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pipinsried66%
×Draw19%
Kirchheimer SC15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pipinsried
2.21
Kirchheimer SC
0.94

Pipinsried creates 135% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 17 away

creates per match

Pipinsried
2.08
Kirchheimer SC
0.71

allows per match

Pipinsried
1.17
Kirchheimer SC
2.35

finishing

Pipinsried+0.00on par
Kirchheimer SC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pipinsried ↓

Kirchheimer SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Pipinsried or draw
85%
Pipinsried or Kirchheimer SC
81%
Draw or Kirchheimer SC
34%

Winning margin

Pipinsried wins by 2+
42%
Kirchheimer SC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Pipinsried 1+ goals
89%
Pipinsried 2+ goals
65%
Pipinsried 3+ goals
38%
Kirchheimer SC 1+ goals
61%
Kirchheimer SC 2+ goals
24%
Kirchheimer SC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pipinsried (draw refunded)
82%
Kirchheimer SC (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pipinsried at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

Kirchheimer SC away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pipinsried attack 2.08 + Kirchheimer SC defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.21

Kirchheimer SC attack 0.71 + Pipinsried defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Pipinsried scores more
66%
level
19%
Kirchheimer SC scores more
15%

Pipinsried at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Pipinsried will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Pipinsried 2–0 Kirchheimer SC

Pipinsried beat Kirchheimer SC 2-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion an der Reichertshausener Straße in Pipinsried.