Kirchheimer SC 1–2 Pipinsried: Result & Stats

Kirchheimer SC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Pipinsried

7/26/2023

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 2Sportanlage Kirchheim Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kirchheimer SC24%

×Draw20%

Pipinsried56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kirchheimer SCExpected goals in this matchPipinsried

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

2.21

Kirchheimer SC

1.39

Pipinsried

2.21

Pipinsried creates 59% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 49 away

1.53

creates per match

1.35

3.06

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Kirchheimer SC

1.53

Pipinsried

1.35

allows per match

Kirchheimer SC

3.06

Pipinsried

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kirchheimer SC+0.00on par

Pipinsried+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kirchheimer SC ↓

Pipinsried →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Kirchheimer SC or draw

44%

Kirchheimer SC or Pipinsried

80%

Draw or Pipinsried

76%

Winning margin

Kirchheimer SC wins by 2+

10%

Pipinsried wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Kirchheimer SC 1+ goals

75%

Kirchheimer SC 2+ goals

40%

Kirchheimer SC 3+ goals

16%

Pipinsried 1+ goals

89%

Pipinsried 2+ goals

65%

Pipinsried 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Kirchheimer SC (draw refunded)

30%

Pipinsried (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kirchheimer SC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 3.06 · 17 matches

Pipinsried away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.24 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kirchheimer SC attack 1.53 + Pipinsried defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.39

Pipinsried attack 1.35 + Kirchheimer SC defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kirchheimer SC scores more

24%

level

20%

Pipinsried scores more

56%

Pipinsried at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Pipinsried will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff