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Pinzgau Saalfelden vs Imst — Regionalliga - West 2018

Pinzgau Saalfelden
Pinzgau Saalfelden
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Imst
Imst
9/7/2024Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · West - 61508 SaalfeldenArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Pinzgau Saalfelden33%
×Draw23%
Imst45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pinzgau Saalfelden
1.54
Imst
1.83

Imst creates 19% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 46 away

creates per match

Pinzgau Saalfelden
1.48
Imst
2.02

allows per match

Pinzgau Saalfelden
1.65
Imst
1.59

finishing

Pinzgau Saalfelden+0.00on par
Imst+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pinzgau Saalfelden ↓

Imst →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Pinzgau Saalfelden or draw
55%
Pinzgau Saalfelden or Imst
77%
Draw or Imst
67%

Winning margin

Pinzgau Saalfelden wins by 2+
15%
Imst wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Pinzgau Saalfelden 1+ goals
79%
Pinzgau Saalfelden 2+ goals
45%
Pinzgau Saalfelden 3+ goals
20%
Imst 1+ goals
84%
Imst 2+ goals
54%
Imst 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Pinzgau Saalfelden (draw refunded)
42%
Imst (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pinzgau Saalfelden at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.65 · 62 matches

Imst away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pinzgau Saalfelden attack 1.48 + Imst defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

Imst attack 2.02 + Pinzgau Saalfelden defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pinzgau Saalfelden scores more
33%
level
23%
Imst scores more
45%

Imst at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Imst will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - West: Pinzgau Saalfelden 2–3 Imst

Imst beat Pinzgau Saalfelden 3-2 in Regionalliga - West on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at 1508 SaalfeldenArena in Saalfelden am Steinernen Meer.