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Imst vs Pinzgau Saalfelden — Regionalliga - West 2018

Imst
Imst
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pinzgau Saalfelden
Pinzgau Saalfelden
4/12/2025Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · West - 21Velly Arena Imst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Imst64%
×Draw20%
Pinzgau Saalfelden16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imst
2.16
Pinzgau Saalfelden
0.97

Imst creates 123% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 62 away

creates per match

Imst
2.39
Pinzgau Saalfelden
0.90

allows per match

Imst
1.04
Pinzgau Saalfelden
1.92

finishing

Imst+0.00on par
Pinzgau Saalfelden+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imst ↓

Pinzgau Saalfelden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Imst or draw
84%
Imst or Pinzgau Saalfelden
80%
Draw or Pinzgau Saalfelden
36%

Winning margin

Imst wins by 2+
41%
Pinzgau Saalfelden wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Imst 1+ goals
88%
Imst 2+ goals
63%
Imst 3+ goals
36%
Pinzgau Saalfelden 1+ goals
62%
Pinzgau Saalfelden 2+ goals
25%
Pinzgau Saalfelden 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Imst (draw refunded)
80%
Pinzgau Saalfelden (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imst at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.04 · 46 matches

Pinzgau Saalfelden away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.92 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imst attack 2.39 + Pinzgau Saalfelden defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.16

Pinzgau Saalfelden attack 0.90 + Imst defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Imst scores more
64%
level
20%
Pinzgau Saalfelden scores more
16%

Imst at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Imst will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Imst vs Pinzgau Saalfelden

Imst and Pinzgau Saalfelden drew 0-0 in Regionalliga - West on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Velly Arena Imst in Imst.