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Pinkafeld vs Kohfidisch — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Pinkafeld
Pinkafeld
FT
2 – 2
Kohfidisch
Kohfidisch
3/16/2024Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 18Sportplatz Pinkafeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Pinkafeld53%
×Draw21%
Kohfidisch26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pinkafeld
2.08
Kohfidisch
1.40

Pinkafeld creates 49% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 87 away

creates per match

Pinkafeld
2.01
Kohfidisch
1.24

allows per match

Pinkafeld
1.56
Kohfidisch
2.15

finishing

Pinkafeld+0.00on par
Kohfidisch+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pinkafeld ↓

Kohfidisch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Pinkafeld or draw
74%
Pinkafeld or Kohfidisch
79%
Draw or Kohfidisch
47%

Winning margin

Pinkafeld wins by 2+
31%
Kohfidisch wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pinkafeld 1+ goals
87%
Pinkafeld 2+ goals
61%
Pinkafeld 3+ goals
34%
Kohfidisch 1+ goals
75%
Kohfidisch 2+ goals
41%
Kohfidisch 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pinkafeld (draw refunded)
67%
Kohfidisch (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pinkafeld at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.56 · 70 matches

Kohfidisch away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.15 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pinkafeld attack 2.01 + Kohfidisch defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.08

Kohfidisch attack 1.24 + Pinkafeld defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pinkafeld scores more
53%
level
21%
Kohfidisch scores more
26%

Pinkafeld at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Pinkafeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pinkafeld vs Kohfidisch

Pinkafeld and Kohfidisch drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Burgenland on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Pinkafeld in Pinkafeld.