Kohfidisch 3–2 Pinkafeld: Result & Stats

Kohfidisch

FT

3 – 2

Pinkafeld

8/24/2024

Landesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 4Stadion Kohfidisch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Kohfidisch43%

×Draw22%

Pinkafeld36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KohfidischExpected goals in this matchPinkafeld

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.77

Kohfidisch

1.94

Pinkafeld

1.77

Kohfidisch creates 10% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 72 away

1.88

creates per match

1.82

1.72

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Kohfidisch

1.88

Pinkafeld

1.82

allows per match

Kohfidisch

1.72

Pinkafeld

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kohfidisch+0.00on par

Pinkafeld+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kohfidisch ↓

Pinkafeld →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Kohfidisch or draw

64%

Kohfidisch or Pinkafeld

78%

Draw or Pinkafeld

57%

Winning margin

Kohfidisch wins by 2+

23%

Pinkafeld wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Kohfidisch 1+ goals

86%

Kohfidisch 2+ goals

58%

Kohfidisch 3+ goals

30%

Pinkafeld 1+ goals

83%

Pinkafeld 2+ goals

53%

Pinkafeld 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Kohfidisch (draw refunded)

54%

Pinkafeld (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kohfidisch at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.72 · 85 matches

Pinkafeld away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.00 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kohfidisch attack 1.88 + Pinkafeld defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Pinkafeld attack 1.82 + Kohfidisch defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kohfidisch scores more

43%

level

22%

Pinkafeld scores more

36%

Kohfidisch at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kohfidisch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff