Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pilica Białobrzegi vs Mamry Giżycko — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Pilica Białobrzegi
Pilica Białobrzegi
FT
4 – 1
Mamry Giżycko
Mamry Giżycko
8/21/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Pilica Białobrzegi46%
×Draw23%
Mamry Giżycko31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pilica Białobrzegi
1.80
Mamry Giżycko
1.46

Pilica Białobrzegi creates 23% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 18 away

creates per match

Pilica Białobrzegi
1.54
Mamry Giżycko
1.22

allows per match

Pilica Białobrzegi
1.71
Mamry Giżycko
2.06

finishing

Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par
Mamry Giżycko+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pilica Białobrzegi ↓

Mamry Giżycko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Pilica Białobrzegi or draw
69%
Pilica Białobrzegi or Mamry Giżycko
77%
Draw or Mamry Giżycko
54%

Winning margin

Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+
25%
Mamry Giżycko wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals
83%
Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals
54%
Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals
27%
Mamry Giżycko 1+ goals
77%
Mamry Giżycko 2+ goals
43%
Mamry Giżycko 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)
59%
Mamry Giżycko (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pilica Białobrzegi at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

Mamry Giżycko away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.54 + Mamry Giżycko defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.80

Mamry Giżycko attack 1.22 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pilica Białobrzegi scores more
46%
level
23%
Mamry Giżycko scores more
31%

Pilica Białobrzegi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pilica Białobrzegi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pilica Białobrzegi vs Mamry Giżycko

Pilica Białobrzegi beat Mamry Giżycko 4-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Białobrzegi.