Mamry Giżycko 2–1 Pilica Białobrzegi

Mamry Giżycko

FT

2 – 1

Pilica Białobrzegi

3/26/2022

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Stadion Miejski MOSIR Giżycko

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Mamry Giżycko46%

×Draw23%

Pilica Białobrzegi31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mamry GiżyckoExpected goals in this matchPilica Białobrzegi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.42

Mamry Giżycko

1.80

Pilica Białobrzegi

1.42

Mamry Giżycko creates 27% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 52 away

1.17

creates per match

1.13

1.72

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Mamry Giżycko

1.17

Pilica Białobrzegi

1.13

allows per match

Mamry Giżycko

1.72

Pilica Białobrzegi

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mamry Giżycko+0.00on par

Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamry Giżycko ↓

Pilica Białobrzegi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Mamry Giżycko or draw

69%

Mamry Giżycko or Pilica Białobrzegi

77%

Draw or Pilica Białobrzegi

54%

Winning margin

Mamry Giżycko wins by 2+

25%

Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mamry Giżycko 1+ goals

83%

Mamry Giżycko 2+ goals

54%

Mamry Giżycko 3+ goals

27%

Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals

76%

Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals

41%

Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Mamry Giżycko (draw refunded)

60%

Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamry Giżycko at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Pilica Białobrzegi away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.44 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamry Giżycko attack 1.17 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.80

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.13 + Mamry Giżycko defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mamry Giżycko scores more

46%

level

23%

Pilica Białobrzegi scores more

31%

Mamry Giżycko at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mamry Giżycko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff