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Pilica Białobrzegi vs Legia Warszawa II — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Pilica Białobrzegi
Pilica Białobrzegi
FT
1 – 1
Legia Warszawa II
Legia Warszawa II
9/16/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pilica Białobrzegi32%
×Draw23%
Legia Warszawa II45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pilica Białobrzegi
1.43
Legia Warszawa II
1.74

Legia Warszawa II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 104 away

creates per match

Pilica Białobrzegi
1.54
Legia Warszawa II
1.77

allows per match

Pilica Białobrzegi
1.71
Legia Warszawa II
1.32

finishing

Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par
Legia Warszawa II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pilica Białobrzegi ↓

Legia Warszawa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Pilica Białobrzegi or draw
55%
Pilica Białobrzegi or Legia Warszawa II
77%
Draw or Legia Warszawa II
68%

Winning margin

Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+
14%
Legia Warszawa II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals
76%
Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals
42%
Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals
17%
Legia Warszawa II 1+ goals
82%
Legia Warszawa II 2+ goals
52%
Legia Warszawa II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)
41%
Legia Warszawa II (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pilica Białobrzegi at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

Legia Warszawa II away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.32 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.54 + Legia Warszawa II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.43

Legia Warszawa II attack 1.77 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pilica Białobrzegi scores more
32%
level
23%
Legia Warszawa II scores more
45%

Legia Warszawa II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Legia Warszawa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pilica Białobrzegi vs Legia Warszawa II

Pilica Białobrzegi and Legia Warszawa II drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Białobrzegi.