Legia Warszawa II 5–2 Pilica Białobrzegi

Legia Warszawa II

FT

5 – 2

Pilica Białobrzegi

3/12/2022

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Legia Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Legia Warszawa II64%

×Draw18%

Pilica Białobrzegi17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legia Warszawa IIExpected goals in this matchPilica Białobrzegi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.19

Legia Warszawa II

2.42

Pilica Białobrzegi

1.19

Legia Warszawa II creates 103% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 52 away

2.40

creates per match

1.13

1.24

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Legia Warszawa II

2.40

Pilica Białobrzegi

1.13

allows per match

Legia Warszawa II

1.24

Pilica Białobrzegi

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legia Warszawa II+0.00on par

Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa II ↓

Pilica Białobrzegi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa II or draw

83%

Legia Warszawa II or Pilica Białobrzegi

82%

Draw or Pilica Białobrzegi

36%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa II wins by 2+

42%

Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa II 1+ goals

91%

Legia Warszawa II 2+ goals

69%

Legia Warszawa II 3+ goals

43%

Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals

70%

Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals

33%

Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa II (draw refunded)

79%

Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa II at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.24 · 103 matches

Pilica Białobrzegi away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.44 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa II attack 2.40 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.42

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.13 + Legia Warszawa II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Legia Warszawa II scores more

64%

level

18%

Pilica Białobrzegi scores more

17%

Legia Warszawa II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Legia Warszawa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff